TTF (Title Transfer Facility) is the primary European natural gas benchmark.
Europe imports ~85% of its gas. Key suppliers: Norway (pipeline), US/Qatar/Algeria (LNG).
Qatar LNG transits Hormuz — ~15% of European LNG supply at risk in closure scenario.
Hormuz disruption → Qatar LNG offline → TTF spikes → electricity prices across EU surge.
Key levels:
2019 pre-crisis avg: ~€14/MWh (normal market)
2021 energy crisis: €93/MWh (Sep 2021, gas squeeze begins)
2022 Ukraine/Nord Stream peak: €214/MWh (Aug 2022) — 15x above 2019
2023 normalization: €30-50/MWh (storage full, demand down)
2024 new normal: €25-50/MWh
Current Hormuz crisis: trending up from €30→€62/MWh
EU gas storage mandate (90% by Nov 1) provides ~3 months buffer.
TTF drives electricity prices in most EU markets — a €10/MWh gas move ≈ €20-25/MWh power move.
Source: Yahoo Finance (TTF=F) / ICE Endex. Monthly 2019–2025, daily from March 2025. Updated daily. 479 data points since 2010-01-01.
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