Gold is the primary safe-haven asset during geopolitical crises. Hormuz crisis response: gold rallies on oil shock → inflation expectations → flight to safety.
Historical pattern: every major oil crisis since 1973 has triggered gold rallies.
Correlation: Brent +50% → Gold typically +15-25% (with 2-4 week lag).
Central bank buying: 1,037 tonnes in 2023 (record) — de-dollarization trend amplifies crisis moves.
UAE (Dubai) is world's #3 gold trading hub — physical flows could be disrupted by Hormuz conflict.
2020 COVID peak: $2,067/toz. 2024 all-time high: $2,700+/toz.
In Hormuz crisis scenario: gold likely tests $3,000-3,500/toz if oil exceeds $150/bbl.
Source: World Bank Pink Sheet (monthly, 2010–present). Updated monthly. 286 data points since 2010-01-01.
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