Japan CIF LNG is the benchmark for Asian LNG contract pricing. Hormuz dependency: Qatar is world's #2 LNG exporter (~80 MTPA). All Qatar LNG transits Hormuz.
Qatar supplies ~20-25% of global LNG trade. Japan, South Korea, China are top buyers.
Hormuz closure → ~25% of global LNG supply offline → Asian spot LNG spikes 3-5x.
2022 precedent: Asian spot LNG hit $70/MMBtu (vs normal $8-12/MMBtu) on Ukraine crisis.
Japan has ~3 weeks of LNG storage (limited tank capacity). South Korea: ~2 weeks.
US LNG (not Hormuz-dependent) becomes swing supplier but limited by export terminal capacity (~13 Bcf/d).
LNG shipping rates also spike as tankers reroute via Cape of Good Hope (+15 days from Qatar).
Source: World Bank Pink Sheet (monthly, 2010–present). Updated monthly. 209 data points since 2010-01-01.
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