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SUEZ CANAL
365-Day Transit History
100% of normal flow
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      └────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
       06.02                         10.30                     04.26
─ daily transits · baseline (pre-30d avg)
Current (7d avg)39 transits/day
Baseline (pre-30d avg)39 transits/day
30-day avg39 transits/day
Lowest day25 on 2026.03.20
LATEST DAY — 2026.04.26
Total39
Container11
Tanker10
Dry Bulk14
General4
SCENARIO PROJECTIONS
● BASE CASE Base Case: Houthi Pressure & Suez Slowdown(58%)
Timeline: Immediate–Q2 2026 (ongoing operations with friction)
Houthi drone/missile strikes continue at 1–2 incidents/week targeting merchant traffic; Suez Canal Authority implements 48–72 hour transit delays and elevated insurance surcharges. ~25–30% of Asia-Europe traffic diverts to Cape; Suez remains open but operationally degraded.
Key Indicators
- Suez transits: 35–40 vessels/day (vs. historical 50–55)
- Houthi incident frequency: 1–2 per week; strike success rate 5–15%
- War risk premiums at 2.0–2.5% for Red Sea transit
- Cape routing: 25–30% of Asia-Europe, 40–50% of Middle East oil
- Suez Authority toll revenue down 20–30% YoY
● BASE CASE Escalation: Suez Closure & All-Cape Routing(28%)
Timeline: Days 0–7 (incident + closure); Days 7–21 (all-Cape transition); Days 21–90 (adjustment)
Escalated Houthi strikes (coordinated swarm attacks, direct hits on major vessel) or Egyptian security response provokes temporary emergency Suez closure (14–21 days). All Asia-Europe and Gulf trades forced to Cape; port congestion at Singapore, Rotterdam spikes.
Key Indicators
- Suez transits drop to zero or <5 vessels/day during closure window
- Confirmed direct-hit on major container ship or tanker (casualties or cargo loss)
- War risk premiums spike to 4–6%
- Cape chokepoint congestion: 2–4 week waiting times at Cape Verde approach
- VLCC rates spike to $280k–$350k/day; container rates +45–60%
- Global supply chain delays: 25–35 days for Asia-Europe routes
● BASE CASE De-escalation: Houthi Ceasefire & Suez Normalization(14%)
Timeline: Days 15–30 (ceasefire agreement); Days 30–60 (return to Suez); Days 60–90 (market rebalance)
Houthi leadership agrees to temporary ceasefire (via Saudi mediation or US–Iran deal spillover); strike frequency drops to <1 per month. Suez transits recover to 85–95% of baseline; insurance premiums compress; most traders return from Cape routing.
Key Indicators
- Suez transits recover to 45–50 vessels/day
- Houthi strike frequency: <1 per month
- War risk premiums compress to 0.5–1.0%
- Cape routing drops to 5–10% of Asia-Europe traffic
- Carrier schedule adherence improves to 85%+
- Port congestion at Singapore clears within 2 weeks
● BASE CASE Hormuz Disruption Anchors Suez Stress(52%)
Timeline: Weeks 2-4 (fee increase implementation); weeks 4-12 (sustained elevated Suez volumes)
Hormuz toll dispute keeps structural closure in place 8-12 weeks; Suez Canal carries diverted Hormuz-origin cargo, generating 8-15% traffic surge above baseline. Egypt's Suez Authority implements transit fee increases (5-8%) to capitalize on demand spike; dredging and convoy management keep queue times to 18-24 hours, but Egypt signals further fee increases if Hormuz closure extends beyond week 12.
Key Indicators
- Suez Canal Authority official transit fee schedule changes
- Weekly northbound Suez transit volume (queuing patterns and wait times)
- Hormuz structural closure persistence (toll dispute progress)
- Carrier announcements regarding Suez fee pass-throughs
- Egypt's public statements on further fee increases
● BASE CASE Suez Congestion Feedback Loop(23%)
Timeline: Weeks 8-12 (dredging/weather incident); weeks 12-16 (queue buildup and fee escalation)
Hormuz structural closure persists 12+ weeks AND Suez Canal experiences dredging delays or weather-related bottleneck (sandstorm, convoy restriction); Suez queue builds to 2-3 days; Egypt accelerates fee increases to 12-15% above baseline. Diverted Cape traffic and Hormuz-origin cargo collide at Suez, creating 4-6 day delays and compounding voyage costs.
Key Indicators
- Suez Canal dredging disruption or weather event reported
- Northbound Suez queue exceeds 2-3 day wait (hard congestion signal)
- Egypt announces transit fee increases exceeding 12%
- Carrier reports of 4-6 day Suez delays
- Vessel rerouting signals emerge (some traffic choosing Cape despite cost)
● BASE CASE Rapid Hormuz Recovery Normalizes Suez(25%)
Timeline: 1 week (Hormuz recovery); 2-3 weeks (Suez volume normalization); 3-4 weeks (fee/queue normalization)
Hormuz ceasefire holds; toll dispute resolves within 7-10 days; Hormuz-origin traffic normalizes by week 3-4; Suez volumes return to baseline by week 5. Egypt's fee increase announcements are withdrawn or deferred; Suez queue clears to zero by week 4; transit cost normalization by week 6.
Key Indicators
- Hormuz toll dispute resolution; ceasefire holds operationally
- Weekly northbound Suez volume drops to baseline levels
- Suez queue clears to zero waiting vessels
- Egypt withdraws or defers fee increase announcements
- Carrier rate rollback announcements for Asia-Europe lanes
● BASE CASE Operational Baseline with Periodic Houthi Disruptions(54%)
Timeline: April 2026 – December 2026
Suez remains open for 95%+ of transits, but Houthi drone/missile strikes force 2–4 brief suspensions (3–7 days each) per quarter, adding 5–8 day delays to affected convoys. Canal Authority maintains 50–55 transits/day baseline with 5–10% scheduling variance.
Key Indicators
- Monthly Houthi incidents: 2–3 (non-fatal, but disruptive)
- Suez suspensions: 2–4 events/quarter, 3–7 days each
- Transit throughput: 50–55 convoys/day maintained
- Canal transit fees rise +15–20%
● BASE CASE Escalation: Major Closure & Regional War Risk(19%)
Timeline: May 2026 – August 2026
Houthi strikes disable a major convoy vessel or hit critical canal infrastructure; Egypt closes Suez for 14–28 days for repairs and security. Combined with Hormuz closure, all Asia-Europe traffic routes via Cape, creating 35–40 day transits and global supply chain freeze.
Key Indicators
- Houthi strike causes vessel sinking or major infrastructure damage
- Suez Authority announces >10 day closure for emergency repairs
- Egypt deploys additional military assets to canal zone
- Global container lines announce >20 day delays on Europe-Asia routes
● BASE CASE De-escalation: Houthi Capability Degrades, Suez Normalizes(27%)
Timeline: June 2026 – October 2026
US/Saudi airstrikes significantly degrade Houthi drone/missile production; incidents drop to <1/month by Q3. Suez returns to 60+ daily transits with minimal delays. Canal Authority reduces transit fees +5–8% to encourage volume recovery.
Key Indicators
- Houthi incidents drop to <1/month sustained over 8+ weeks
- Suez transits reach 60+ convoys/day consistently
- Canal Authority announces fee reduction (+5–8% vs. pre-war)
- Container lines restore weekly Europe-Asia sailings via Suez
● BASE CASE Managed Constraints(49%)
Timeline: Sustained 12+ weeks if status quo persists; seasonal volatility ±1-2 days transit delay
Red Sea/Yemen situation remains volatile but contained; Suez Canal Authority maintains transit protocols with occasional daily closures (1-3 days/week). Average transit delays 1-2 days; war risk premiums stable at +3-6%. Asia-Europe spot rates maintain $2050-2300/40ft with Red Sea surcharges +$150-250/TEU.
Key Indicators
- Monthly Suez transits (target: >1000/month = manageable throughput)
- Average transit delay (target: <2 days = operational stability)
- Red Sea attack incidents (monitoring: <2 incidents/month = manageable risk)
- War risk insurance premiums (target: 3-6% = stable within range)
- Asia-Europe spot rates (monitoring: $2050-2300/40ft baseline; surcharges +$150-250/TEU)
● BASE CASE Transit Denial & Full Rerouting(21%)
Timeline: Escalates within 24-48 hours of major incident; persists 4-12 weeks if SCA closure extended
Major attack on Suez Canal infrastructure or transit vessel; SCA announces extended closure (7-14 days or longer). 80%+ of Asia-Europe traffic reroutes to Cape; Suez spot rates spike +$1500-2200/TEU; war risk premiums exceed 12%; parcel surcharges +20-30%.
Key Indicators
- Major attack on SCA infrastructure or transiting vessel (confirmed incident)
- SCA closure announcement duration (>7 days = full reroute trigger)
- Suez transit volume measured decline >70%
- War risk insurance premiums (>12% = market pricing extended disruption)
- Asia-Europe spot rates spike >$3000/40ft and parcel surcharges >20%
● BASE CASE Enhanced Security & Reopening(30%)
Timeline: De-escalation signal within 1-2 weeks of security enhancement announcement; full normalization 3-5 weeks
SCA implements enhanced convoy protocols and air defense coordination with regional powers; Red Sea attack frequency declines to <1/month. Suez transits return to >95% of pre-crisis levels. War risk premiums fall to +1-2%; Asia-Europe spot rates normalize to $1850-2050/40ft.
Key Indicators
- SCA security protocol announcement: enhanced convoy, air defense, or international naval coordination
- Red Sea attack incidents decline to <1/month sustained for 4+ weeks
- Suez transits rebound to >95% of pre-crisis baseline
- War risk insurance premiums fall to 1-2% or below
- Asia-Europe spot rates retreat to $1850-2050/40ft; parcel surcharges normalized +2-5%
● BASE CASE Suez Resilience with Houthi Containment(65%)
Timeline: April 2026 – September 2026
Suez Canal remains operationally open with Houthi attacks contained to 2–3 incidents/month; insurance war risk premium stabilizes at +10–12%. Transit volume holds 80–85% of historical baseline as some traffic diverts to Cape; container rates remain +25–35% elevated.
Key Indicators
- Houthi attack frequency (incidents/month, target: <3)
- Suez daily transit throughput (baseline: 30–40 vessels, now 25–34)
- Canal Authority revenue and toll adjustments
- War risk insurance premium for Red Sea/Suez transit
- Vessel detention/damage incidents (monthly count)
- Insurance claim payout frequency
● BASE CASE Escalation: Suez Closure via Mine Deployment or Major Attack(20%)
Timeline: May 2026 – July 2026
Houthis or state actor deploys mines or escalates anti-ship missile strikes, triggering temporary Suez closure for 7–14 days during clearance/response. All Asia-Europe traffic reroutes to Cape; rates spike to +60–80%.
Key Indicators
- Mine detection/clearance operations initiated
- Suez Canal Authority closure announcement
- Mine-sweeping vessel deployment (international naval assets)
- Closure duration (days)
- All-Cape rerouting surge
- Emergency vessel market activation
● BASE CASE De-escalation: Regional Peace Agreement Reduces Houthi Threat(15%)
Timeline: June 2026 – August 2026
Oman-mediated Yemen ceasefire agreement or Houthi strategic decision to pause attacks restores Suez confidence. War risk premium drops to +4–6%; traffic returns to 90%+ historical baseline by July 2026.
Key Indicators
- Yemen ceasefire agreement announcement/implementation
- Houthi statement halting Red Sea attacks
- Incident-free Suez transits (14+ days)
- War risk insurance premium decline trajectory
- Suez daily transit volume returning to 90%+ baseline
- Container rate reversals on Asia-Europe Suez trades
ALL CHOKEPOINTS
HORMUZ79%
CAPE OF GOOD HOPE86%
SUEZ CANAL100%
MALACCA106%
BAB EL-MANDEB107%
GIBRALTAR107%
Transit data: IMF PortWatch (updated every 8h). Baseline: average of all data excluding last 30 days. Scenarios: AI-generated from reports + transit data.