● BASE CASE Base Case: Fragile Ceasefire Hold with Elevated Ops Cost(48%)
Timeline: 3–6 months
Houthi ceasefire holds operationally but remains brittle; Red Sea corridor remains open but carries +10–12% rate premium and +15–20% war insurance markup. Marsa Ocean and peer carriers maintain limited feeder operations (1,200–1,500 TEU vessels) on rotational risk tolerance, but no meaningful return to pre-conflict service density.
Key Indicators
- Houthi missile activity remains below 1 per week average
- Marsa Ocean Aden feeder service sustains 4–6 weekly rotations
- Suez Canal northbound traffic holds at 60–70% of pre-conflict baseline
- Insurance markets quote +15–18% war-risk premium on Red Sea transits
● BASE CASE Escalation: Ceasefire Collapse & Mass Diversion(32%)
Houthi attack on major vessel or Israel strike on Houthi targets reignites sustained missile campaign; Red Sea traffic halts within 48 hours as carriers withdraw vessels. Cape of Good Hope becomes exclusive Asia-Europe routing, forcing simultaneous diversion of Red Sea + Persian Gulf traffic and driving +20–30% rate spike within days.
Key Indicators
- Houthi attack on commercial vessel or successful hit on naval asset
- Israeli strike on Houthi facilities in Yemen
- Carrier emergency advisories issued; Red Sea route recommendations withdrawn
● BASE CASE De-escalation: Regional Ceasefire Formalization & Risk Normalization(20%)
Timeline: 6–8 weeks normalization; 3–4 month full recovery
International mediation stabilizes Houthi–Israel ceasefire with third-party guarantees; Red Sea corridor risk pricing declines to +2–3% over 6–8 weeks. Carrier service density returns to 70–80% pre-conflict levels; insurance premiums normalize to +3–5%; Suez traffic resumes dominance over Cape routing.
Key Indicators
- International mediation agreement (UN, Gulf states, or Egypt-brokered deal)
- Houthi leadership formal ceasefire statement with 60+ day compliance track record
- Carrier service announcements for Red Sea corridor restoration
- Insurance premiums decline to +3–5% range
- Suez Canal northbound traffic exceeds 80% of pre-conflict baseline
Transit data: IMF PortWatch (updated every 8h). Baseline: average of all data excluding last 30 days. Scenarios: AI-generated from reports + transit data.