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HORMUZ
365-Day Transit History
79% of normal flow
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   90 ┤╰╯╰╯─ ╰╯─ ─ ╰╯─││ ─ │╭─╯─│─ │ ╰╮╭─╮ ─││ ─ ─ ─ ─ │ │ ─ ─ ─ ─   baseline
   80 ┤               ╰╯   ╰╯   ╰──╯  ││ │  ││         │ │         
   70 ┤                               ╰╯ ╰─╮││ ╭───╮╭╮╭╯ │         
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   51 ┤                                       ╰╯         │         
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    2 ┤                                                  ╰────╯╰───  now
      └────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
       06.02                         10.30                     04.26
─ daily transits · baseline (pre-30d avg)
Current (7d avg)9 transits/day
Baseline (pre-30d avg)90 transits/day
30-day avg7 transits/day
Lowest day0 on 2026.03.21
Below 50%42 consecutive days
LATEST DAY — 2026.04.26
Total5
Container0
Tanker1
Dry Bulk4
SCENARIO PROJECTIONS
● BASE CASE Constrained Transit(45%)
Timeline: 2-4 weeks sustained, then gradual normalization over 6-8 weeks
US counter-blockade enforcement continues at reduced intensity; sporadic vessel transits resume with extended routing protocols and increased insurance premiums (~5-8%). Physical closure persists but does not tighten further, locking in 7-10M bpd capacity loss as structural baseline.
Key Indicators
- Weekly Hormuz transit count (target: >15 vessels/week signals de-escalation)
- Crew confinement duration (declining from multi-week to <5 days)
- War risk insurance premiums (monitoring 5-8% band vs. spike above 12%)
- Global seaborne crude shipments (recovery toward 40M+ bpd from 32.4M bpd floor)
- Queue length at Hormuz approaches (vessel count, avg wait time)
● BASE CASE Kinetic Escalation(25%)
Timeline: Escalates within 7-10 days; persists 8-12 weeks if kinetic exchange occurs
US enforcement hardens into sustained blockade; Iranian counter-measures (mine deployment, IRGC interdiction) create physical denial conditions. Hormuz effectively non-navigable for 60+ days; Panama Canal and Cape routing fully saturated.
Key Indicators
- IRGC vessel movement frequency (>2 interdiction attempts = escalation signal)
- Mine-laying reports or naval exercises in central Hormuz (confidence level in intelligence)
- Vessel diversion rate to Cape (>80% of crude rerouting = full blockade condition)
- Insurance market closure (war risk premiums >25% or coverage withdrawal)
- Crude oil price level (WTI >$110/bbl sustained = market pricing kinetic scenario)
● BASE CASE Negotiated Passage(30%)
Timeline: Negotiation phase: 5-7 days; implementation: 2-3 weeks to full clearing
Ceasefire framework expands to include safe-transit protocols; US and Iran establish de-confliction channels; vessel queues clear over 10-14 days. Hormuz returns to 85-90% normal throughput with elevated but acceptable insurance costs and transit insurance mandates.
Key Indicators
- Official US-Iran maritime protocol announcement (positive signal)
- Queue clearance rate (>25 vessels/week exiting transit zone)
- Insurance premium collapse (dropping below 8% war risk add-on)
- Crew repatriation commencement (scheduled evacuations from stranded vessels)
- IMCA/ICS guidance updates (formal routing channels restored)
● BASE CASE Base Case: Dual Blockade Entrenchment(60%)
Timeline: Immediate–Q2 2026 (60–90 days)
US-Iran dual blockade persists as a structural constraint through Q2 2026, maintaining Hormuz transits at 50–65% of peacetime levels (~12–15 vessels/day) with carriers permanently shifting to Cape routing for crude. Bunker surcharges remain elevated as alternative routes consume 8–12 additional days transit time.
Key Indicators
- Daily Hormuz vessel counts remain 12–15 (vs. historical 19–21)
- VLCC rates hold $170k–$200k/day range
- Cape diversions exceed 65% of Gulf crude flow
- War risk premiums stable at 2.5–3.5% of hull value
● BASE CASE Escalation: Military Confrontation & Canal Closure(25%)
Timeline: Days 1–14 (acute shock); Days 15–60 (adjustment to all-Cape routing)
Direct US-Iran naval engagement at Hormuz or Iranian mine-laying/vessel sinking triggers emergency closure; simultaneously, Houthi strikes intensify at Red Sea, forcing Suez bypass. Global oil chokepoint throughput collapses to <30% of baseline.
Key Indicators
- Hormuz transits drop to <8 vessels/day or zero
- Suez southbound traffic halts or diverts to Cape
- VLCC rates spike to $300k–$400k/day
- War risk premiums rise to 5–7% of hull value; P&I clubs restrict coverage
- Global oil inventories tighten; emergency SPR releases announced
● BASE CASE De-escalation: Negotiated Corridor & Partial Normalization(15%)
Timeline: Days 20–45 (negotiation + implementation); Days 45–90 (market rebalance)
US-Iran negotiations yield a demilitarized shipping corridor with international monitor presence; transits recover to 75–85% of peacetime levels by late May. Political alignment requirement is lifted; carriers resume neutral-flag operations.
Key Indicators
- Hormuz transits rise to 16–18 vessels/day
- VLCC rates decline 15–25% from current peaks
- Cape diversions drop below 40% of Gulf flow
- War risk premiums compress to 0.5–1.0%
- Neutral-flag insurance rates normalize; carrier schedules stabilize
● BASE CASE Managed Stalemate(45%)
Timeline: 2-4 weeks (current ceasefire window); 4-8 weeks (political resolution or re-escalation decision point)
Ceasefire holds operationally but toll-mechanism dispute drags negotiation into weeks 12-16, keeping traffic at 40-60% of pre-crisis levels. US mine clearance completes, reducing war risk premium by 200-300 bps, but commercial closure persists due to political sovereignty dispute rather than military interdiction.
Key Indicators
- Vessel backlog clearance rate (currently 800+ vessels)
- Toll-mechanism negotiation progress between parties
- US mine clearance operational timeline and casualty rate
- Iranian command authority consolidation post-degradation
- Weekly Hormuz transit traffic as % of baseline
● BASE CASE Structural Closure Deepens(30%)
Timeline: 2-3 weeks (ceasefire collapse trigger); 6-12 weeks (structural impact on global rates)
Ceasefire collapses within 2-3 weeks due to unauthorized escalation (degraded Iranian command) or political breakdown over toll disputes; Hormuz reverts to de facto commercial closure, pushing 21% of global oil supply onto Cape routing for 8+ weeks. Rate environment spikes sharply as insurance, bunker, and delay costs compound across all affected corridors.
Key Indicators
- Ceasefire violation reports or unauthorized military action
- Backlog reversal (vessels re-routing, not transiting)
- Political statements regarding toll negotiations (deterioration signal)
- Insurance market repricing of war risk (sudden jumps)
- ULCV diversion to Cape route (confirmatory signal of Hormuz closure)
● BASE CASE Rapid De-escalation & Normalization(25%)
Timeline: 1-2 weeks (toll resolution); 3-4 weeks (backlog clearance); 4-6 weeks (full normalization)
Toll dispute resolves within 7-10 days via Iranian concession or third-party guarantee mechanism; mine clearance completes successfully with no incidents; traffic normalizes to 85%+ of baseline by week 10. War risk premiums collapse; fuel surcharges begin to roll back; backlog clears within 3-4 weeks.
Key Indicators
- Toll-mechanism agreement announcement (bilateral or via mediator)
- Weekly Hormuz transit traffic trending toward 90%+ of baseline
- Mine clearance completion with zero casualty incidents
- Insurance market repricing downward (war risk premium collapse)
- Carrier fuel surcharge rollback announcements
ALL CHOKEPOINTS
HORMUZ79%
CAPE OF GOOD HOPE86%
SUEZ CANAL100%
MALACCA106%
BAB EL-MANDEB107%
GIBRALTAR107%
Transit data: IMF PortWatch (updated every 8h). Baseline: average of all data excluding last 30 days. Scenarios: AI-generated from reports + transit data.