Unique vessels seen inside the Persian Gulf in the last 24 hours, west of the Strait of Hormuz. Counts use 24h rolling window to cover AIS broadcast gaps in areas with poor coverage.
Source: AIS live tracking (24h unique) · snapshot 2d ago
Fleet Size (24h unique)0 vessels
Anchored0
Avg Days in Gulf2.7
LongestCMA CGM GALAPAGOS — 1 days
ECONOMIC IMPACT
Average daily cargo throughput (metric tonnes) at Gulf ports before the crisis. Source: IMF PortWatch daily port call data. With Hormuz blocked, this cargo cannot move.
Daily Cargo at Risk646K t/day
Port of Sohar108K t4.7 calls/day
Fujairah101K t4.8 calls/day
Mina Saqr73K t2.7 calls/day
Jebel Ali69K t2.6 calls/day
Ras Tanura49K t1.1 calls/day
Bandar Khomeini43K t1 calls/day
Jubail39K t1.8 calls/day
Ras Laffan29K t0.9 calls/day
SUPPLY CHAIN SPILLOVERS
When a Gulf port goes offline, ports worldwide that depend on its cargo lose capacity. Each row shows a trade route, normal transit time, and daily throughput at risk (metric tonnes). Source: IMF PortWatch spillover model.
Jebel Ali → Singapore13d transit32K t/day
Juaymah → Zhoushan60d transit25K t/day
Juaymah → Ningbo55d transit23K t/day
Juaymah → Kiire27d transit23K t/day
Jeddah → Singapore13d transit22K t/day
Jebel Ali → Mundra4d transit21K t/day
Jeddah → Tangier-Mediterranean8d transit20K t/day
Juaymah → Singapore57d transit19K t/day
Juaymah → Lanqiao Port77d transit18K t/day
Al Fujayrah → Singapore26d transit18K t/day
Total Spillover Capacity at Risk370K t/day
SIMULATION
What happens if Hormuz stays closed? Cumulative cargo disruption over time. Daily port throughput × days of closure = total cargo stranded. Day 0 of the current crisis.
Daily cargo at risk646K t/day
Daily spillover loss370K t/day
30 days19.4M t cargo · 11.1M t spillover
Cargo stranded19.4M t
Downstream capacity lost11.1M t
Cape capacity approaching saturation
Insurance war risk premiums peak
Equipment shortages cascade to unrelated lanes
90 days58.2M t cargo · 33.3M t spillover
Cargo stranded58.2M t
Downstream capacity lost33.3M t
Strategic petroleum reserves activated
Permanent rerouting via Cape (+12-14 days)
Global container capacity down 15-20%
180 days116.3M t cargo · 66.6M t spillover
Cargo stranded116.3M t
Downstream capacity lost66.6M t
Pipeline alternatives at max capacity
Freight market structural repricing
New vessel orders placed for longer routes
COUNTRIES — TRADE AT RISK
Annual trade value (USD) exposed to Gulf port disruptions, by exporting country. Source: IMF PortWatch scenario modeling — "present conditions" scenario.
China$83.5B/yr
United States$61.4B/yr
Japan$39.5B/yr
Taiwan Province of China$27.0B/yr
Korea$21.1B/yr
Australia$16.7B/yr
India$11.8B/yr
Mexico$10.3B/yr
Germany$9.4B/yr
United Kingdom$8.9B/yr
COUNTRY RISK LOOKUP
Select a country to see how a Hormuz closure affects its trade. Shows exposed industries, affected port routes, and estimated downtime. Source: IMF PortWatch scenario model (198 countries).
Fleet data: aisstream.io AIS (Persian Gulf zone). Trade volumes: IMF PortWatch, World Bank. Simulation: arithmetic from accumulated daily trade data.