The Strait of Hormuz — through which 20% of global oil, 20% of LNG, and 35% of LPG flows — has been closed since March 2, 2026, following US-Israeli strikes on Iran. IRGC is actively mining and attacking tankers. Flow has dropped to 9% of normal (97% collapse). This is the LARGEST supply chain disruption of raw materials in history — surpassing the 1973 embargo, the 1984 Tanker War, and the 2019 Aramco attacks.
KEY NUMBERS:
- 20 mb/d of crude blocked (pipeline bypass covers max 35%)
- 81 Mt/yr LNG from Qatar — zero pipeline alternatives
- 35-40% of global LPG — India in cooking fuel crisis
- 33% of global fertilizers — 2026 planting season at risk
- Brent: $98-120/bbl (peak $119, largest single-day spike since 1988)
- SPR: IEA released record 400M bbl — covers ~30 days of deficit
1. CRUDE OIL AND CONDENSATES
Volume: 20 mb/d (2024-2025) = 25% of global seaborne oil trade
EXPORTERS THROUGH HORMUZ:
+---------------------+----------+--------+----------------------------------------+
| Exporter | mb/d | Share | Notes |
+---------------------+----------+--------+----------------------------------------+
| Saudi Arabia | 5.5 | 37-38% | Pipeline bypass to Yanbu |
| Iraq | 3.3 | 22.8% | Basra exports — 100% via Hormuz |
| UAE | 1.9 | 12.9% | ADCOP to Fujairah (1.5-1.8 mb/d) |
| Kuwait | 1.5 | ~10% | Zero alternatives — full dependency |
| Iran | 1.2 | ~8% | Goreh-Jask pipeline (0.3 mb/d) |
| Qatar | 0.7 | ~5% | Dependent on Hormuz |
| Oman | 0.4 | ~3% | Partial bypass |
| Bahrain | 0.05 | <1% | Refinery hit 10.03 |
+---------------------+----------+--------+----------------------------------------+
DESTINATION MARKETS:
+---------------+--------+----------+-------------------------------------------+
| Destination | Share | mb/d | Closure implication |
+---------------+--------+----------+-------------------------------------------+
| China | 37.7% | 5.5 | 40% oil imports; ~4 month reserves |
| India | 14.7% | 2.1 | 50% oil imports; fuel crisis |
| South Korea | 12.0% | 1.7 | "Highest current account risk" |
| Japan | 10.9% | 1.6 | 87% energy imported; 70% via Hormuz |
| Rest of Asia | ~9% | 1.3 | Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore |
| Europe | ~8% | 1.2 | 30% jet fuel from Gulf |
| Americas | ~5% | 0.7 | USA: 3% consumption — least affected |
| ASIA TOTAL | 84% | 12.2 | EPICENTER OF CRISIS |
+---------------+--------+----------+-------------------------------------------+
2. NATURAL GAS (LNG)
Volume through Hormuz: ~10 Bcf/d = 20% of global LNG trade
FORCE MAJEURE TIMELINE:
Mar 2: Iranian drones hit Ras Laffan and Mesaieed
Mar 4: QatarEnergy declares FM on ALL gas contracts
Mar 7: Kuwait declares force majeure
Mar 11: Shell declares FM on Qatar offtakes
EFFECT: 5 consecutive days with ZERO LNG shipments — longest since 2008
17 LNG carriers stuck off Ras Laffan
PRICE IMPACT:
+-------------------------+--------------+-----------------+---------+
| Benchmark | Pre-crisis | Current | Change |
+-------------------------+--------------+-----------------+---------+
| JKM (Japan-Korea) | ~$10/MMBtu | $23.40/MMBtu | +134% |
| TTF (Dutch) | ~$11.1/MMBtu | $18.5/MMBtu | +63% |
| LNG carrier spot rate | $40,000/d | $300,000/d | +650% |
| 1-year charter | $42,000/d | $100,000/d | +138% |
+-------------------------+--------------+-----------------+---------+
Morgan Stanley: Qatar shutdown erased projected LNG surplus for 2026 —
market has shifted from oversupply to deficit.
COUNTRY IMPACT:
Pakistan: 99% LNG from Qatar+UAE. Rolling blackouts. CATASTROPHIC.
Bangladesh: 72% from Qatar+UAE. 4h daily gas cuts. Universities closed.
India: 53% LNG from Qatar+UAE. SEVERE — Dahej terminal critical.
South Korea: 15-35% gas supply. Coal ramp-up. MANAGEABLE.
Japan: ~5% LNG from Qatar. Nuclear restart as buffer. MANAGEABLE.
Europe: 7-8% LNG. Diversified post-Russia. PAINFUL on price.
China: ~6% total LNG. Best positioned — Australia, US, pipeline.
Zero pipeline alternatives for LNG export — 100% seaborne dependency.
3. LPG (PROPANE + BUTANE)
Volume: ~1.5 mb/d = ~41.55 Mt/yr = 29% of global seaborne LPG trade
INDIA — EPICENTER OF LPG CRISIS:
332.1M active LPG connections. 104M are Ujjwala (poorest households).
Consumption: 31 Mt/yr. Imports: 60% (~18.2 Mt). 90% of imports via Hormuz.
Price of 14.2kg cylinder: Rs 853 -> Rs 913 (+7%)
Government response: LPG Control Order — refinery production +28% in 5 days
Rationing: 25 days min between orders (urban); 45 days (rural)
2 LPG ships (Mar 14): 92,700 t with Iranian clearance — covers ~1.5 days
Health implications (WHO): Reversion to biomass/wood/dung:
2.9M deaths/year from household air pollution.
Pakistan: 4-day work week. Bangladesh: universities closed. Max 2L/day motorcycles.
VLCC spot rate: $423,736/day (ALL-TIME HIGH) — +94% in 1 day.
CIF ARA propane: $590/t — +$106/t (+22%) IN 1 DAY.
Backwardation: ~$90/t — steepest in 14 years.
4. FERTILIZERS
~33% of global seaborne fertilizer trade passes through Hormuz.
~50% of seaborne urea behind the blockade.
UREA PRICES:
NOLA: $516/t -> $683/t (+32%)
Global: $465.5/t -> $585/t (+26%)
SE Asia: +40% since conflict start
SULFUR: ME FOB $173/t (Jan 2025) -> $531.50/t (Jan 2026) = +207% even BEFORE closure.
Critical for: sulfuric acid -> phosphate processing (DAP/MAP) AND critical metals processing.
23 FERTILIZER SHIPS TRAPPED (Kpler, Mar 11):
Since Feb 28 ONLY 1 fertilizer ship left the Gulf.
Estimated cargo: 900,000-1,400,000 tons worth $500M-$1B.
2026 PLANTING SEASON AT RISK:
US corn: CRITICAL — new fertilizer from Gulf won't arrive before April
US soybean: Farmers may SHIFT acres from corn to soy (less N-intensive)
EU wheat/rapeseed: Top-dressing window NOW — fertilizer needed
India Kharif: 3-month window; India seeking urea from China
Brazil safra 2026/27: "Extremely high risk" — Min. of Agriculture
SUBSTITUTION — NONE:
China: Export restrictions until Aug 2026 — "off market"
Russia: Limited (Ukrainian drones on N plants); sanctions complicate
Organic: Years to scale. Sri Lanka 2021: forced organic -> rice -20%,
food inflation 80%, government collapse
Carnegie Endowment: "4 billion people eat food grown with synthetic nitrogen
fertilizers. Half the global population lives thanks to these chemicals."
5. PETROCHEMICALS
GCC capacity: ~168 Mt/yr (2026) = 6% of global production. 74% for export.
POLYMER PRICES (March 2026 vs pre-crisis):
HDPE: ~$1,000/t -> $1,410/t (+41%)
LLDPE: ~$1,015/t -> $1,425/t (+40%)
PP CFR China: ~$950/t -> $1,170-1,250/t (+25-30%)
Naphtha Europe: $585/t -> $695-700/t (+18%)
85% of PE exports from Middle East = ~10.6 Mt/yr through Hormuz.
Zero pipeline alternatives for petrochemicals.
DOWNSTREAM IMPACT:
PACKAGING: GCC exports ~12.5 Mt PE + ~7 Mt PP.
No packaging -> food waste increase -> food price inflation.
AUTOMOTIVE: Average car uses 200 kg of plastic.
Toyota cut production by 40,000 units (ME destination).
Bosch, Continental, ZF: 100,000+ jobs at risk.
MEDICINE: ME = ~20% of global PP exports -> syringes, IV bags, tubing.
India produces 40% of global generics — 6%+ exports via Hormuz routes.
TEXTILES: Polyester = 57% of global fiber production.
"Sharpest textile shock since COVID-19" — feedstocks +25-40%.
3,200 ships (4% of global tonnage) stuck in Gulf.
~100 container ships (10% of global fleet). Transit: -97%.
6. FOOD IMPORTS TO GULF STATES
GCC imports ~$60-62B food annually (2024). Population: ~59M.
Saudi Arabia: $25B imports, 80% imported, 4-6 month grain reserves
UAE: $25B imports, 80-85% imported, 4-6 month reserves
Qatar: $5.3B imports, 90%+ imported, 18 MONTH food reserves
Kuwait: $4-5B imports, 91% imported, ~3 month reserves
Bahrain: $2B imports, 92% imported, 2-3 months — desalination HIT
81% of GCC rice imports transit through Hormuz.
COUNTRY RISK PROFILES:
BAHRAIN — MOST VULNERABLE:
├── 92% food imported
├── Island — only land link: King Fahd Causeway to Saudi Arabia
├── ~60% drinking water from desalination
├── DESALINATION PLANT HIT BY IRANIAN DRONE 10.03.2026
├── Reserves: 2-3 months (shortest in GCC)
└── No ports outside Hormuz
KUWAIT — HIGHLY VULNERABLE:
├── 91-95% food imported
├── 90% drinking water from desalination
├── Zero alternative maritime routes (100% through Hormuz)
└── Reserves: ~3 months
SAUDI ARABIA — BEST POSITIONED:
├── 80% food imported, BUT:
├── Red Sea ports (Jeddah, Yanbu) = 39% grains OUTSIDE Hormuz
├── SAGO: 4-6 month grain reserves
├── Self-sufficient in: dairy (Almarai), dates, eggs
├── BUT: Almarai cows eat imported corn and soy
│ -> "dairy self-sufficiency" = fiction without feed imports
└── SALIC: $8B farm portfolio (Ukraine, Australia, Brazil)
ENERGY-WATER-FOOD NEXUS — CASCADE FAILURE:
1. HORMUZ closed -> energy exports blocked
2. DESALINATION: INFRASTRUCTURE threat, not fuel threat
• GCC = ~45-50% of global desalination (400+ plants)
• GCC HAS oil/gas — fuel for desalination IS available
• BUT: desalination plants = attack targets (Bahrain 8.03)
• Desalination runs on GAS (~93%), not crude oil
-> Qatar: Ras Laffan (gas production) hit by drones
-> Gas exists, but processing infrastructure threatened
• Saudi/UAE: sufficient resources for months/years
-> risk = targeted attack, NOT fuel exhaustion
• Bahrain/Kuwait: low diversification -> 1 hit = crisis
3. WATER stable AS LONG AS infrastructure is intact
• Qatar: ~5 days reserves in mega-reservoirs (post-2018)
• Kuwait: 90% drinking water from desalination
• UAE: target 45 days extreme emergency storage
4. SHIPPING disrupted -> imported food doesn't arrive
• 3,200 ships trapped (4% of global tonnage)
• Surcharges: $1,500-4,000/container (war risk)
5. FEED doesn't arrive -> "self-sufficient" sectors fail
• Saudi corn 4.7 Mt/yr, barley 3.3 Mt/yr = all imported
• Almarai cows eat imported soy/corn
• Without feed: dairy, poultry, eggs = production collapses
6. GCC FERTILIZERS blocked -> food inflation GLOBALLY
• GCC exports 33% of global fertilizers
• Double blow: food doesn't come in AND doesn't go out
RISK RANKING:
1. Bahrain ████████████████████ CRITICAL
2. Kuwait ███████████████████░ CRITICAL
3. Qatar ██████████████░░░░░░ PREPARED (18 months)
4. UAE ████████████░░░░░░░░ MEDIUM (Fujairah port)
5. Oman ██████████░░░░░░░░░░ LOWER (ports outside Hormuz)
6. Saudi Ar. ████████░░░░░░░░░░░░ LOWEST (Red Sea ports)
Hormuz is not just an energy chokepoint. It is an EXISTENTIAL chokepoint —
without it, GCC states lose access to energy, water, food and fertilizers
SIMULTANEOUSLY. There is no precedent for such a cascade.
7. PIPELINE BYPASS ANALYSIS
NORMAL HORMUZ FLOW: 20.0 mb/d
MAX PIPELINE BYPASS CAPACITY: 7.0-9.3 mb/d (35-47%)
AVAILABLE BYPASS SPARE: 4.1-6.0 mb/d (20-30%)
GAP (IMPOSSIBLE TO COVER): 11-16 mb/d (55-80%)
BYPASS FOR LNG: 0 mb/d (ZERO)
BYPASS FOR LPG: 0 mb/d (ZERO)
BYPASS FOR FERTILIZERS: 0 Mt (ZERO)
BYPASS FOR PETROCHEMICALS: 0 Mt (ZERO)
Pipelines cover max 35-47% of normal crude flow.
For LNG, LPG, fertilizers, petrochemicals and food —
NO ALTERNATIVES EXIST — 100% seaborne dependency.
GDP IMPACT — SCENARIOS:
+---------------------+----------+----------+--------------+
| Scenario | Oil | Duration | Global GDP |
+---------------------+----------+----------+--------------+
| Base (GS) | $98 avg | To Apr | -0.3% |
| Extended (GS) | $110 avg | 1 month | -0.5% |
| Oxford Economics | $140 | 2 months | -0.7% recess.|
| Extreme | $147-200 | >3 months| -1.5 to -2.5%|
+---------------------+----------+----------+--------------+
ASIA — EPICENTER:
Japan: 70% oil, 87% energy imported. Stagflation. Nikkei -8%.
South Korea: ~75% oil from Gulf. "Highest CA risk." KOSPI -11%.
India: 50% oil, 60% LPG. Cooking fuel crisis. Food inflation.
China: 40% oil imports. Reserves ~4 months. Best positioned.
Rule of thumb for Asia: each +$10/bbl = +0.3-0.7 pp inflation
and -0.3-0.5% current account.
EUROPE: Already stressed post-Russian gas cutoff.
30% jet fuel from Gulf -> forecast: 20,000+ cancelled flights.
Oxford Economics: Eurozone and UK recession at $140/bbl for 2 months.
USA: Most insulated (net energy exporter).
GS: GDP -0.3 pp to 2.2%; recession probability +5 pp to 25%.
EMERGING MARKETS: Most devastating impact.
Precedent: after 1973 crisis, debt of 100 oil-importing developing
countries rose by 150% in 4 years (IMF).
Yellen: "The Iran situation puts the Fed even more on hold,
more reluctant to cut rates."
10. FINANCIAL MARKETS
BRENT CRUDE:
Pre-war: ~$70/bbl (Feb 27)
+6 days: $90/bbl (+28%)
Peak intraday: $119.50/bbl (Mar 9)
Close >$100: Mar 12 (first since Aug 2022)
Current: ~$100-101/bbl
Intraday swings: -12% (Mar 10 ceasefire hopes), +9% (Mar 12 rebound)
FREIGHT RATES:
VLCC spot: $423,736/day (ALL-TIME HIGH) — +94% in 1 day
LNG carrier spot: $300,000/day (+650% from $40K)
SCFI Middle East: $3,220/TEU (+40.8% w/w)
CMA CGM surcharge: $2,000-4,000/TEU (Emergency Conflict)
22% of global tanker fleet immobilized. Transit: -92-99%.
MARINE INSURANCE — "THE INVISIBLE SIEGE":
War risk premium: 0.2% -> 3.0% hull value (12x) in 2 weeks
= ~$7.5M per VLCC transit
7 of 12 P&I Clubs filed 72h cancellation notices
"It's NOT missiles that closed the strait — it's INSURANCE"
EQUITY WINNERS:
Exxon, Chevron: ALL-TIME HIGHS
Tankers (Frontline, Nordic American, DHT): +59-63% YTD
Defense (Lockheed +40% YTD, RTX +110%)
EQUITY LOSERS:
Airlines: "Market bloodbath" — Delta 21.73% bankruptcy prob. (24m)
American Airlines: EBITDA -46%
S&P 500: 2026 low = 6,672 (Mar 13)
CENTRAL BANKS:
Fed: Hold rates; cuts "deferred" -> potential HIKES
ECB: Hold; up to 2 hikes priced (previously: cuts)
BOJ: Already +25bp in Jan; yen ++4% = imported inflation
COMMODITY CONTAGION:
Gold: ~$5,175/oz (spike to $5,423). JPM target: $6,300.
Urea NOLA: $683/t (+32%). Agricultural panic.
Soybeans: +13.9%. Soybean oil: +30.1% (2-year high).
Aluminum: JPM Q2: $3,200/t (230K-ton deficit forecast)
Copper: JPM Q2-Q3: $13,500/t (130K-ton deficit)
HDPE: $1,410/t (+41%). Packaging crisis.
11. STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVES (SPR)
CURRENT LEVELS:
USA: 415M bbl (~55 days net import)
China: 1.2-1.3B bbl (~4 months import)
Japan: ~500M bbl (~200+ days)
IEA total: ~4B bbl
COORDINATED RELEASE:
Mar 11: IEA authorized LARGEST release in history: 400M bbl
US share: 172M bbl (43%)
Called the "Oil Bazooka"
SUFFICIENCY ANALYSIS:
HORMUZ DEFICIT: ~13-15 mb/d (not coverable by pipeline)
SPR RELEASE: 400M bbl
DEFICIT COVERAGE: 400M / 13M/d = ~30 DAYS
CONCLUSION: SPR buys WEEKS, not MONTHS.
If Hormuz closed beyond April -> SPR runs out.
Market knows this — Brent holds >$100 despite record releases.
12. PORT CONGESTION
GULF PORTS — OPERATIONAL STATUS:
Jebel Ali (UAE): CLOSED — zero arrivals for 7 days. ~135K TEU ($4B cargo)
Khalifa Port (UAE): Operational with crisis management
Dammam (Saudi): All carrier services SUSPENDED
Hamad Port (Qatar): Reduced activity; food terminal active
Bandar Abbas (Iran): SEVERELY DAMAGED — burning 24h+
SCALE OF ENTRAPMENT:
Total: 3,200 ships = 4% OF GLOBAL TONNAGE
Tankers: 329, including 77 VLCC (8.5% of VLCC fleet)
Containers: 114 (~10% of global container fleet)
LNG carriers: 88 operating / 14 detained
At anchor: 500+ off UAE/Oman coastlines
CONTAINERS TRAPPED: 200,000-450,000 TEU
Jebel Ali alone: ~135,000 TEU ($4B cargo value)
BYPASS PORTS:
Khorfakkan (UAE): KEY BYPASS — 15% of all tracked diversions
Salalah (Oman): OPS SUSPENDED — Iranian drones Mar 11
"Hub-eliminating damage" — Iran targeted the bypass
Jeddah (Saudi): EMERGING PRIMARY HUB (7.5M TEU after $800M expansion)
Cape of Good Hope rerouting: +10-15 days (some routes +49 days).
+$1-2M/voyage in additional bunker fuel.
SUPPLY CHAIN TIMELINE:
Week 1-2: Ocean freight to Gulf STOP. Diversions +360%.
Week 4-6: CONTAINER SHORTAGE hits Asian factories.
Week 4-8: European consumers feel impact.
Week 6-12: US retailers feel impact. PE shortages -> packaging -> food waste.
13. GREEN TRANSITION PARADOX
RENEWABLES ARE NOT A BENEFICIARY — THEY ARE A VICTIM
Every element of the green transition REQUIRES crude oil for manufacturing.
Hormuz closure simultaneously:
INCREASES long-term economic case for renewables
(high oil = renewables more profitable to operate)
DECREASES near-term ability to BUILD renewables
(more expensive materials, freight, components)
SOLAR PV — OIL DEPENDENCY ANATOMY:
China produces >80% of global PV panels. China imports 40% of oil via Hormuz.
Polysilicon (~40% of module cost): indirect (coal/coke)
Aluminum frames (~14%): DIRECT — petroleum coke as anodes
EVA encapsulant (~5-7%): DIRECT — EVA = ethylene from naphtha (69%)
Backsheet (~3-5%): DIRECT — PET from petroleum
Transport (+5-10%): DIRECT — VLSFO from crude; freight already +25%
25-35% of PV module material costs come from oil/petrochemicals.
WIND TURBINES: Same dependencies.
Blades: epoxy resin (oil). Carbon fiber: 90-96% from PAN (propylene).
Lubricants: 100% petroleum-derived. Cables: XLPE insulation.
BATTERIES / EVs: Full dependency.
Electrolyte: EC, DMC, DEC — from ethylene oxide (oil). No substitute.
Separator: PE/PP micropores — 100% oil. No substitute.
Synthetic graphite anode: Petroleum coke + pitch. No alternative at scale.
NET EFFECT:
Short-term (0-6 mo): PV/wind/battery costs +10-20%
Medium-term (6-18 mo): deployment -15-25% vs plan
Long-term (18+ mo): investment grows but installed base lags pre-crisis
"Green transition gap" extends by ~2-4 years
In H1 2025, renewables surpassed coal as the main source of global electricity.
The Hormuz crisis threatens to reverse that momentum.
Wassily Leontief's input-output model (Nobel Prize 1973) describes how a
price shock in one sector propagates through the ENTIRE inter-industry matrix.
Every sector buys from others — oil feeds into transport, transport into food,
food into services. Leontief computed these dependencies as a coefficient
matrix: if we know the direct share of oil in a sector, we can calculate the
TOTAL impact (direct + indirect + induced).
$1 oil price increase -> $2.50-3.50 total economic impact.
This means the Hormuz shock is 2.5-3.5x larger than the oil price alone suggests.
OIL DEPENDENCY COEFFICIENTS BY SECTOR:
Crude oil is not just fuel — it is a molecular feedstock for thousands of
products with no short-term substitutes. 13% of global fossil fuels serve
as feedstock (not combustion).
+-------------------+------------------+-------------------+
| Sector | Direct input | Total (dir+indir) |
+-------------------+------------------+-------------------+
| Petrochemicals | 30-40% | 45-55% |
| Road transport | 25-35% | 40-50% |
| Plastics/rubber | 25-30% | 40-45% |
| Agriculture | 5.2% (energy) | ~14.5% (w/fert.) |
| Construction | 8-12% | 15-20% |
| Pharmaceuticals | 3-5% | 10-15% |
| Textiles | 8-12% | 15-25% |
| Electronics | 3-5% | 8-12% |
| Renewables mfg | 10-15% | 25-35% |
+-------------------+------------------+-------------------+
LEONTIEF MULTIPLIER:
$1 oil price increase -> $2.50-3.50 total economic impact
(direct + indirect + induced effects)
CASCADE: OIL +50% -> SECTOR IMPACT:
+-------------------+----------+-----------------------+--------------------+
| Sector | Cost rise| Hormuz amplifier | Short-term substit.|
+-------------------+----------+-----------------------+--------------------+
| Petrochemicals | +20-35% | 85% PE from ME via Hor| Minimal |
| Transport | +15-25% | Rerouting +10-20 days | Partial (rail) |
| Renewables mfg | +10-20% | China 80% PV + oil | None |
| Agriculture/food | +5-8% | 1/3 fertilizers via H | Low |
| Construction | +7-12% | Asphalt, aluminum | Low |
| Pharmaceuticals | +10-20% | India 40-50% oil Hor. | Low |
| Textiles | +8-15% | Feedstock from ME ref. | Medium (cotton) |
| Electronics | +3-8% | Resins, freight | Low |
| Batteries/EVs | +10-20% | Synth. graphite+solv. | None |
+-------------------+----------+-----------------------+--------------------+
PHARMACEUTICALS — "World's pharmacy" at risk:
~99% of pharma raw materials from petrochemistry (BTX)
India: 40-50% oil via Hormuz, 73-74% APIs from China
Cascade: oil up -> India costs up -> Chinese APIs more expensive
-> generics more expensive -> healthcare inflation in 200+ countries
FOOD SYSTEM (beyond fertilizers):
30% of global energy consumed by food system (FAO)
Pesticides: 95%+ petroleum-derived
Food packaging: PE, PP, PET — all oil
OIL +50% -> FOOD +5-8% retail
CHINA — WORLD'S FACTORY UNDER ENERGY PRESSURE:
>80% PV panels, ~70% batteries, ~60% EVs
Oil imports: 70% of consumption; 40% via Hormuz
Coal-to-Chemicals: buffer, not substitute (6x worse CO2)
PV panels: +8-15% at $120+, +20-30% at $150+/bbl
STRAITS Intelligence:
1,040 reports on Hormuz (339 critical, 299 high, 297 elevated)
11 daily briefings (Mar 1-14, 2026)
259 AI syntheses
Export Data:
EIA: Strait of Hormuz oil flows (2025)
IEA: Strait of Hormuz Factsheet 2026
Kpler: Global Fertiliser Dependency on Gulf Exports
GPCA: GCC Petrochemical and Chemical Industry 2024
Economic Analysis:
Goldman Sachs: Oil Price Reset (March 2026)
Oxford Economics: Hormuz Disruption Economic Impact
CSIS: Chokepoint — How the War with Iran Threatens Global Food Security
WEF: The Global Price Tag of War in the Middle East
UNCTAD: Strait of Hormuz Disruptions — Implications for Global Trade
Renewables/Petrochemistry Dependencies:
IEA: Solar PV Global Supply Chains (2024)
IEA: Impact of Commodity and Energy Prices on Solar PV, Wind and Biofuels
BCG: Opportunities in Global Ethylene Economics
US DOE: Solar PV System Cost Benchmarks
NREL: Materials Used in US Wind Energy Technologies
Media:
CNBC, Bloomberg, Al Jazeera, Reuters, Financial Times,
Fortune, Axios, CNN, Insurance Journal, Lloyd's List