With over 750 commercial vessels currently inside the Strait of Hormuz as US and Israeli strikes target Iran, the risk of vessel seizure, mining, or military interdiction is immediate and severe. Logistics operators should halt new Hormuz transits pending situational clarity and activate force majeure protocols with clients. Expect war risk insurance premiums to spike dramatically and spot freight rates on tanker and LNG routes to surge as the market prices in potential strait closure.
Rate Direction
Rates up +85.00%
Time Horizon
immediate
Confidence
72%
Routes Affected
Strait of Hormuz / Persian Gulf / Indian Ocean / Red Sea / Cape of Good Hope
Ports / Terminals
Jebel Ali / Bandar Abbas / Fujairah / Abu Dhabi / Ras Laffan / Salalah / Karachi
Carriers
MSC / Maersk / CMA CGM / Hapag-Lloyd / COSCO / Evergreen / ONE / Yang Ming
Source
https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/security/shipping-security-risk-increases-dramatically-in-persian-gulfpublished 28 Feb 2026, 11:15 UTC