Bernstein analysts warn that the joint U.S.-Israel operation against Iran immediately injects a $5–10/bbl geopolitical risk premium into oil prices, with Strait of Hormuz disruption identified as the critical swing factor. For logistics operators, this translates to elevated bunker cost exposure and upward freight rate pressure across Gulf and Indian Ocean corridors. Shippers should urgently review fuel adjustment clauses and war risk insurance coverage for Persian Gulf-routed cargo.
Rate Direction
Rates up +15.00%
Time Horizon
immediate
Confidence
62%
Routes Affected
Strait of Hormuz / Persian Gulf / Indian Ocean / Red Sea / Cape of Good Hope
Ports / Terminals
Jebel Ali / Bandar Abbas / Fujairah / Salalah / Karachi
Carriers
MSC / Maersk / CMA CGM / COSCO / Hapag-Lloyd / Evergreen
Source
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/bernstein-runs-3-war-scenarios-for-oil-prices/published 04 Mar 2026, 11:00 UTC