Wolfe Research analysts assess that Iran has limited ability to disrupt global oil supply flows, with that capacity potentially degrading further over time. For logistics operators, this suggests the risk of a sudden Strait of Hormuz closure or major infrastructure attack is lower than market sentiment implies. However, ongoing Middle East conflict escalation risk continues to support elevated war risk insurance premiums and freight rate volatility.
Rate Direction
Volatile
Time Horizon
weeks
Confidence
52%
Routes Affected
Strait of Hormuz / Persian Gulf / Red Sea / Indian Ocean
Ports / Terminals
Fujairah / Bandar Abbas / Jebel Ali / Ras Tanura
Source
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/irans-ability-to-disrupt-oil-flows-appears-limited-wolfe-research-says/published 04 Mar 2026, 11:00 UTC